What your vote means for the future of British farming

There has not been an election like this in modern times. With just days to go until polling day, it is a genuine three-horse race.

At the time of writing, nobody could predict with any certainty who will be entering the door of 10 Downing Street on May 7.

The race was thrown wide open by Liberal Democrat leader Nick Clegg’s performance in the first of the three televised party leader debates, which saw his party suddenly elevated above Labour and, in some cases, the Conservatives, in the polls.

The burning question since, has been whether the ‘Clegg bounce’ can be sustained until May 6 in the face of increasingly intense scrutiny of his character and policies.

It is this that could determine the 2010 General Election. Here are some of the possible scenarios.

Outright Conservative win

While less likely than it once appeared, a Conservative majority remains a distinct possibility, albeit one that requires the Clegg bubble to burst.

Outright Labour win

Just possible but very unlikely given the party’s consistently low poll ratings in the run-up to the election.

Outright Liberal Democrat win

Incredibly unlikely, despite the poll surge, because of the way the voting system works against them.

Hung Parliament

The Lib Dem surge has made a hung Parliament, in which no party secures the 326 seats needed for an overall majority, the most likely outcome.

Exactly how this would translate into who governs the country for the next few years is still anybody’s guess.

Assuming they don’t gain the most seats, the Lib Dems are likely to hold the balance of power. They initially suggested they would allow the party with the ‘biggest mandate’ to operate as a minority Government, supporting it in votes, without entering into a formal coalition or demanding places in the Cabinet.

But, as their likely number of votes and seats has risen, so has their apparent interest in entering into a formal coalition.

They have not specified whether this ‘mandate’ for support - coalition or otherwise - means the most seats or the most votes, opening up the possibility of protracted negotiations.

Although they appear closer to Labour in policy terms, Mr Clegg has signalled that his party would talk to the Tories, if they had the most seats. In return for support from Labour or the Conservatives, the Lib Dems would demand certain policy commitments, including reform of the voting system.

The upshot of all this is that the real battle for No 10 might well only just be starting on May 7.

Such is the prevailing uncertainty, another possibility remains - a second election later this year, as happened the last time there was a hung Parliament in 1974.

So what does this all mean for farmers?

In the event of an outright majority win, there are clear policy differences between Labour and the Conservatives on issues such as bovine TB and responsibility and cost sharing (RCS), although there is also much common ground, as this eight-page special will show.

In a hung Parliament, a Lib Dem Minister could theoretically be handed control of Defra in a coalition Government, with potentially profound implications for policies like bTB, RCS, the supermarket ombudsman and CAP reform.

Even without direct control, Lib Dems, strong in many rural areas, may well demand a say in Defra policy and could force Labour or the Conservatives to change tack where policies differ.

A minority Tory Government, with one eye on the possibility of a further election, may seek to steer clear of controversial policies, such as badger culling and hunting.

One thing we do know for certain in this most unpredictable of elections is that the outcome matters to farmers.

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