As one Defra agency appears to be finally learning the painful lessons of IT rollouts gone wrong, another seems to have walked into the same trap. Farm income to fall 8 per cent in 2010
FARM incomes could plummet by 8 per cent in 2010 despite soaring profits this year, Defra forecasts have revealed.
Total income from farming increased by 25 per cent in 2009 thanks largely to a 5 per cent fall in input costs and a favourable exchange rate that helped boost single payments by 17 per cent.
But the Department has warned of tougher times ahead in its ‘first estimate’ of farm incomes for 2009 and 2010, released on Tuesday (November 19).
Input costs are forecast to fall marginally in 2010 but Defra said farm output looks set to decline by 2.2 per cent and single payments are unlikely to receive the same exchange rate boost as they did in 2009.
However, the Department warned the estimates had ‘broad margins of uncertainty’ where specific events, such as disease outbreak or extreme weather, could shift incomes from the underlying trend in individual years.
The 2010 forecast, which will be reviewed in January next year, contrasts starkly with the figures for 2009 where total income from farming rocketed by 25 per cent.
This was achieved despite a decline in the value of agricultural output of 2.8 per cent and a fall in crop production of 8.7 per cent. Animal production meanwhile increased by 0.9 per cent.
The value of farming in 2009
DEFRA’s figures on farm income show the rise and fall of the value of production of various crops and livestock systems as well as inputs. Farmers were also given a boost in 2009 with single payment rising 15 per cent in value due to the value of the Euro against Sterling.
Arable
- Wheat - down 18 per cent.
- Barley - down 15 per cent.
- Oilseed rape - down 24 per cent.
- Potatoes - down 17 per cent.
- Sugar beat - up 8.6 per cent.
- Forage plants - up 26 per cent.
Livestock
- Cattle – up 6.9 per cent.
- Pigs – up 16 per cent.
- Sheep – up 12 per cent.
- Dairy – down 11 per cent.
Inputs
- Machinery fuel and oil – down 21 per cent.
- Fertiliser – down 16 per cent.
- Animal feeds – down 13 per cent.
Readers' comments (1)
suzy davies | 10 January 2010 8:05 pm
Agricultural GVA fell over 68% in Wales 1997 - 2007. Staggering. Sickening. A better year this year, in no small part down the state of the euro, doesn't mean we're out of crisis. This is what happens Welsh rural areas aren't represented in government.
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